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Economic development of Uzbekistan in 2023
The economy of Uzbekistan in 2023 demonstrated advanced dynamics. According to the Statistics Agency, gross domestic product grew by 6% last year (5.7% in 2022).
Positive trends were also observed in major trading partner countries, despite continued geopolitical tensions. Thus, in Kyrgyzstan, despite the slowdown compared to last year, economic growth remained high – 6.2%. In Kazakhstan, GDP growth is expected to be around 5%. In China, at the end of last year, the economy grew by 5.2% According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Russian economy grew by 3.3% over the 11 months of 2023, and it is expected that by the end of the year the growth will be about 4%.
In Uzbekistan, a slowdown in price growth was observed throughout the year. At the end of the year, the consumer price index amounted to 8.77% (compared to 12.25% in 2022). For comparison: in Kazakhstan at the end of last year, inflation was 9.8%, in Russia – 7.4%. In Uzbekistan, prices for food products increased over the year by 9.7%, for non-food products - 7.7%, services - 8.7%.
In 2023, investment activity increased sharply - growth amounted to 22.1% compared to 0.2% in 2022. The increase was achieved due to an increase in non-centralized investments by 26%. In particular, foreign direct investment and loans increased by 58.9% (FDI almost doubled), investments through loans from commercial banks and borrowed funds increased by 17.9%, and through household funds - 8.9%. However, there is a decrease in the investment of enterprises' own funds by 2.7%.
Centralized investments in 2023 decreased by 0.7%. In particular, the decrease in investment from the budget amounted to 11.4%. At the same time, the volume of foreign investments and loans attracted under government guarantees increased by 30%.
At the end of the year, the share of centralized investments in the total volume of investments in fixed assets continued to decline - from 15.7% in 2022 to 12.7%. The share of non-centralized investments accordingly increased from 84.3% to 87.3%.
There was an increase in output in all sectors of the economy.
Agriculture grew 4.1% (3.6% in 2022). Growth in forestry also accelerated to 2.7% (1.7%) and fisheries - 7.4% (6.4%).
The growth rate of industrial production accelerated, reaching 6% (5.3% in 2022). By sector: the mining industry grew by 1% (in 2022 - 1.9%), manufacturing - 6.7% (5.4%), the electricity supply sector for gas, steam and air conditioning - 9.7% (13. 5%), water supply, sewerage, waste collection and disposal - 1% (in 2022, a decline of 5.3%).
Meanwhile, growth in consumer goods production slowed to 7.3% in 2023 (20.7% in 2022).
The construction sector grew by 6.4% at the end of the year, which is almost the same as last year – 6.6%.
The volume of market services in 2023 grew by 13.7%, while in 2022 it was 16.3%. Growth is observed in all sectors. The highest growth rates were demonstrated by communication and information services - an increase of 24.6%, education - 22.8%, financial services - 20.6%, real estate services - 13.3%, accommodation and food - 12.6%, healthcare - 11.6%, trade – 10.2%. Retail turnover increased by 9.1%.
The volume of services provided in the transport sector increased by 8%. At the end of the year, the growth rate of passenger turnover slowed to 4.2%, whereas in 2022 it was 6.9%. At the same time, the dynamics of cargo turnover accelerated to 1.8% (0.9% in 2022).
Foreign trade continued to grow at double-digit rates. Thus, in 2023, foreign trade turnover increased by 23.9% and amounted to $62.6 billion. Exports increased by 23.8% to $24.4 billion, imports by 24% to $38.1 billion.
The increase in exports is due to an almost double increase in supplies abroad of gold, machinery and transport equipment by 34%, services by 16%, food products by 9%, and finished goods by 8%.
At the same time, Uzbekistan in 2023 increased imports of machinery and transport equipment by 54%, fuel and energy goods by 47%, finished products by 12%, chemical products by 11%
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In general, in 2023, despite internal and external challenges, the economy of Uzbekistan demonstrated stability and high growth rates. Last year, we managed to return to double-digit dynamics in investment activity, slow down price growth, and production increased in all sectors of the economy.
It is expected that in 2024 the economy of Uzbekistan will continue its positive dynamics. According to the forecast, the GDP growth rate will be 5.6-5.8%.
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